New Evidence in Solving the Greatest Mystery in Modern-Day Christianity

Are today’s revival headlines hiding a deeper spiritual problem we’re afraid to measure?

The question to you the jury…

Is Christianity in America experiencing a genuine revival—or is it in serious decline?

Exhibit C: The Numbers We Never Put on Trial

By now, the jury has heard two compelling cases. On one side, the evidence for revival: packed events, viral testimonies, rising engagement, stories of lives changed. On the other, the evidence for decline: long-term data showing erosion in belief, formation, and Christian affiliation.

Last week, a reader named Copella wrote to me once again with a further comment that quietly reframed the entire debate.

“What jumped out at me this time was this simple phrase: evidence of life change.”

That’s it. No spreadsheet. No dashboard. No complicated methodology. Just one question: Is there evidence of life change?

She went on:

“Stadiums filled with people praising God = AMAZING! But if all those people leave the stadium and are not living (and loving and forgiving) like Jesus… what happened? You know? And what can we do to change it?”

That question deserves more than a nod. It deserves to be placed at the center of the conversation.

So before the jury votes, we need to examine Exhibit C—not a new study, but the kind of numbers we’ve trusted to tell the story of evangelism and discipleship for the last fifty years.

In research, there’s a well-established category called vanity metrics.

A vanity metric is a number that looks impressive but lacks explanatory power. It signals activity, not impact. Visibility, not durability. Momentum, not meaning.

Vanity metrics don’t lie—but they can mislead. They answer the question, “Did something happen?” They do not answer the question, “Did anything change?”

In ministry reporting, vanity metrics have been everywhere. Most ministries report things like:

• Reach

• Impressions

• Views

• Downloads/Installs

• Attendance

• Decisions

• Baptisms

• Engagement spikes

And let me say plainly: none of these are wrong. Many reflect sincere obedience and real moments of God at work. I’ve celebrated them. I’ve reported them. I’ve thanked God for them.

The problem is not the numbers themselves. The problem is what we asked them to prove. Over the last several decades, the ministry world has increasingly adopted a business concept: Return on Investment.

Donors were encouraged—often rightly—to ask, “What is the impact of my giving?” Boards assumed life change and asked for accountability. Donors and Funders wanted evidence (of life change for Jesus). Results mattered.

But here’s where things quietly went off course. ROI in ministry was rarely defined as evidence of life change. It was defined by outputs that could be quickly counted and confidently reported.

How many did we reach? How many responded? How many decisions per dollar?

When ROI is demanded, and a transformed life is too much trouble to measure, organizations naturally reach for what can be easily measured. That’s not corruption. That’s gravity.

Over time, vanity metrics became the currency of ministry ROI. And once that happened, billions of donor dollars were given, allocated, and renewed largely on the basis of numbers that were never designed to tell us whether people were actually becoming more like Jesus. Again—not everywhere. Not always. But often enough to shape an entire system.

When funding follows high outputs, ministries inevitably optimize for high outputs. Programs scale reach. Messages drive response. Success is framed by growth curves and engagement spikes. Meanwhile, far fewer ministries consistently reported things like:

• Scripture internalization

• Obedience over time

• Character change

• Long-term retention in faith

• The fruit of discipleship

Why? Because those indicators take time. They don’t spike after an event. They don’t fit neatly into quarterly ROI reports. And they resist being reduced to applause-worthy numbers.

Vanity metrics spike. Formation metrics mature. Which brings us back to that reader’s question.

If stadiums fill, but lives don’t change—

if praise is loud, but forgiveness is rare—

if decisions are counted, but disciples are not formed—

What happened?

This is why revival claims and decline data can coexist without contradiction. They are often measuring entirely different realities. Vanity metrics can rise inside the church ecosystem while the deeper evidence of life change stagnates or even declines. In other words, the Christian system can become very productive while Christians themselves are not becoming very formed.

And this warning is not new.

Fifty years ago, Jim Engel cautioned that counting visible responses without tracking long-term movement toward Christ would create an illusion of effectiveness. Evangelistic impact, he argued, is a process—not a moment—and the real question is what happens after the crowd goes home.

We largely ignored that warning. Not because it was wrong—but because vanity metrics fit our ROI expectations far better. 

Which brings us back to the jury.

If the numbers we relied on were never designed to answer the simplest question—Is there evidence of life change?—then the verdict must wait.

Email me your questions. I want full transparency—and full understanding—before we reach a conclusion.

The final evidence comes next week.

P.S. If you have a comment or prayer request, contact me here: or call me and leave a message at 1-800-811-2387. And be sure to join me tomorrow through Friday on our new podcast Spiritually Fit Today.