Solving the Greatest Mystery of Modern Day Christianity: Part 2

The Mystery of You: The Divided Jury

Recap of Last Week: Last Sunday, I asked you, my 140,000 fellow “jurors,” to weigh two

conflicting narratives about the state of Christianity in America. Exhibit A was the case for revival, citing ministry reports of surging faith, while Exhibit B was evidence of decline, based on rigorous data from Pew Research. The question: Is the Church in America experiencing genuine spiritual revival, or is it in serious decline, and who might be misrepresenting the truth?

Hundreds of you watched the video I shared (https://bttb.org/harvestupdate), and most of you asked for more information before giving a verdict. For those who responded, thank you. Your thoughtful replies revealed a deeply divided jury and a mirror of the larger mystery.

The Revival Verdict: 

Some of you strongly sided with Exhibit A. You believe the ministry reports reflect a real move of God in America. Several of you said surveys can’t measure the Spirit. You pointed to vibrant pockets of growth, especially among youth.

The Decline Verdict: 

Others found Exhibit B more convincing. You believe the decline is real. One reader said, “We’re good at getting people in the door for a moment, but we’re failing to make true disciples.” Many in this group believe church leaders are glossing over a looming discipleship deficit.

Hung Jury:

Then there were many of you who sat quietly in the middle, either unsure, or saying you saw truth in both sides, seeing a mix of undeniable erosion but also stories of God working in individual hearts. Perhaps most of us are in this category.

So yes, we’re a divided jury. But some themes stood out: concern about a crisis of discipleship, skepticism about big numbers and hype, and the tension of a church that sometimes connects, sometimes doesn’t. There are signs of life and of serious struggle.

One reader, Copella, told me she’d literally been on jury duty the week before. She said: “Your email grabbed my attention. If we celebrate revival that’s not actually happening, we risk resting on our laurels and not realizing how bad things really are.”

Which brings us to Pastor Bob.

Pastor Bob: When Measuring the Wrong Things Leads to the Wrong Verdict

Let me introduce you to theoretical Pastor Bob, lead pastor of the “Typical Church of America.” Smart guy. Seminary trained. Digital native. Loves Jesus, as does his great staff. To the outside world, especially the ministry industry, Bob is crushing it.

He recently launched a 365-day discipleship video program with 100 people in his 300-member church. It’s high-tech and high-visibility with daily devotionals, encouraging text messages, and a massive digital sign on Main Street.

The results? Stunning—on the surface:

•    App downloads grew 400%

•    Content views reached 109,000

•    Bible engagements hit 365,000

•    The digital sign generated over 100 million impressions

•    The “Call Jesus” hotline logged millions of indicated decisions

Bob celebrates a 23% bump in Gen Z participation. Giving skyrockets tenfold. Other pastors fly in to learn from him. His model goes global. One church in India copies the sign strategy and gets 146 million impressions and 50 million decisions. Bob is a superstar. 

But then comes the deeper data.

When researchers step in, they don’t look at outputs like impressions or app installs. They look at outcomes—what actually happened to the people. And the reality? For every person Bob’s church gained, six quietly slipped away.

Bob started the year with 300 members. He ended it in decline.

Here’s the twist: By the metrics we currently celebrate, Pastor Bob is massively successful. Because we count reach, engagement, and decisions, but ignore long-term retention, Bob keeps “winning.” He’s rewarded and platformed. But the discipleship deficit remains.

Follow the Money

And then I got a note from Dean. He and I pray for each other regularly. Dean said:

“In every crime, they say follow the money. In business, when choosing between a big and small client, you follow the money. I think the ministry's doing the same. People pay for what they want to hear. They stop giving when they hear hard truths. Back a winner, they say. The big numbers? Just numbers without substance.”

Dean’s been in the music ministry. He’s seen what happens when hype wins over heart.

So what should we be measuring?

We’re great at counting outputs:

•    App downloads

•    Impressions

•    Engagements

•    Indicated decisions

•    Giving

But what about outcomes?

•    Sustained Scripture engagement

•    Evidence of life change

•    People discipling others

We’ll explore that next week in Exhibit C: The Metrics of the Kingdom.

Until then. Thank you for your honesty, your insights, your heart. This conversation is far from over.

P.S. If you have a comment or prayer request, contact me here: or call me and leave a message at 1-800-811-2387. And be sure to join me tomorrow through Friday on our new podcast Spiritually Fit Today.